...Je Suis Petrobras
3 de fevereiro de 2015.
Dear
Regardless of an ideological agreement with French diplomacy in the case of the French newspaper Charlie Hebdo, I would talk about this theme "Je Suis Petrobrás"
remembering year 2008.
In 2008, several financial operators kept sold positions in dollar to benefit the outcome of their balance sheets with Dollar's fall.
For a given time the strategy worked well, but how the sold positions were larger than necessary, when Dollar's price increased the replacement had to occur at higher price, this generated a knock-on effect and losses of large companies, leading several traditional companies for corporate rearrangements and even bankrupt.
The market at that time justified their actions as a crisis from higher prices of dollar and not to activities not related to the core business of the companies, that would fit only for banks and not for Companies.
The main and great learning, was that market focused in the solution and didn´t spent time searching responsibles, proof of this is that many executives who have been envolved in such attitudes were acquitted. Finally, the market missed, reorganized itself.
When we analyze the Petrobras case, the statements of its President Grace Foster and the market's answer, we can make the following observations.
The market asked Petrobras to conduct writedowns between $ 20 and $ 50 billion for corruption and fraud, which could allow the market to ask back, stock values at the time of purchase.
The Board explained that Petrobras held two reviews.
A, referring to what was determined as fraud, approximately U $ 1bi and another comparing the "valuation" of investments approximately U $ 40bi, exist in this second methodology, an underestimated values of increase of U$ 10bilhões.
Petrobra's Board, also explained that dismissed the second approach because it does not represent correctly fraud's value and like any investment, the format of "Valuation" need to work with EBITDA multipliers and expectations of different returns of a mature business model.
The market, countered the position of the Petrobras Board requiring immediate writedowns.
But the issue goes deeper. Amid the American crisis and break of the US financial sector Warren Buffet bought U$5bi in the stock market.
Warren Buffet gave the following message, I believe in the system, we will address what is wrong, but the system can not be confused with people.
What are we doing as Brazilians, is saying that the mistakes are in the Company and confusing the Corporation with individuals, depreciating the major symbol of our Country.
Wasn't the immediate suspension of the works of Três Lagoas and Abreu e Lima, dispensing more than 10,000 employees without pay or termination pay, sufficient evidence to the Market that Petrobras is correcting its course?
Wasn´t the indictments of many traditional companies, shows that there is, despite the problems, a new Governance forming?
Or is the same market that self acquitted in 2008, now wants to blame Petrobras for the same attitudes that acquitted in 2008.
We must be clear that:
1- Corruption must be addressed and quantified as corruption, and wants the market or not, the calculated values are too far from the market wants. $1bi against $40bi.
2- Strategic mistake should be treated as a strategic mistake and not as corruption.
The market is confusing the two items and spreading internationally to all investors that corruption was $ 40bi and not $1bi.
Petrobras in turn, should immediately determine what remains and is far from its core business, and starts privatization of its assets, as the fertilizer industry from "Três Lagoas", whose works were suspended with 85% completion, Abreu e Lima and many others, reorganizing fast its Cash Flow.
And we as Brazilians, we should criticize and act on people and not on what is the biggest symbol of the country abroad.
...Je Suis Petrobras
Alexandre Leite
https://www.linkedin.com/in/leitealexandre
